The Language of Uncertainty: Reading Türkiyes Economic Pulse Through Geopolitical Fog
Kilic I. Balli F.
January 2026John Wiley and Sons Inc
World Economy
2026#49Issue 130 - 51 pp.
Geopolitical uncertainty is an increasing concern for investors, entrepreneurs, and researchers. Traditional methods of measuring uncertainty often fall short, whereas Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Natural Language Processing (NLP) offers more accurate and competitive options. In this study, we develop a Geopolitical Country-Specific Uncertainty (GCSU) index for Türkiye by applying the economic policy uncertainty index methodology. Since geopolitical uncertainty involves Knightian uncertainty—which cannot be quantified with probabilities in advance—our approach measures it by analysing the frequency of economy-, policy-, and uncertainty-related terms in Turkish-language newspapers. Unlike existing indexes for Türkiye, such as the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which rely on English-language sources, our localised method provides a more precise measure of country-specific uncertainty. Our findings show that an unexpected increase in geopolitical uncertainty leads to declines in employment, industrial production, trade, consumer confidence, and stock prices, while oil prices and inflation rise in response. However, these results may not be observed when uncertainty is measured using English sources (e.g., through the index from the GPR-Türkiye). These insights highlight the importance for policymakers to consider geopolitical uncertainty in their economic planning and suggest directions for further research into measuring uncertainty with local language sources.
economics , geopolitical uncertainty , impulse response analysis by local projections
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Faculty of Business and International Relations at Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland
School of Economics and Finance at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
Higher School of Economics and Business Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Business and International Relations at Vistula University
School of Economics and Finance at Massey University
Higher School of Economics and Business Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026