First steps in forecasting the health workforce in Kazakhstan: A baseline scenario
Kharin A. Koichubekov B. Omarkulov B. Sorokina M. Korshukov I. Omarbekova N.
2021National Scientific Medical Center
Journal of Clinical Medicine of Kazakhstan
2021#18Issue 340 - 45 pp.
Background: The purpose of this study was to consider the basic scenario for predicting the need for general practitioners in Kazakhstan until 2030. Material and methods: A basic health care human resource planning model consists of supply and demand components, analysis of the outcomes of the prediction, and planning future actions. Stock-flow consistent model was built by using current situation and projected Kazakhstan population, retirement rate, attrition rate and adding the estimated number of new graduates. Results: According to the proposed scenario, in some years of the forecast period, both an excess and a lack of a general practitioners offer are possible. The largest surplus, 226 doctors, is predicted in 2024. However, starting in 2027 their shortage is possible, with a peak of 339 general practitioners in 2030. Conclusion: Considered scenario leads to the fact that inflow does not cover the increasing needs of primary health care associated with population growth. In this case, our forecast is the basis for medical schools to adjust the number of general practitioners students in internship, seeking a balance of supply and demand.
health care workforce , human resources forecasting , public health , workforce planning
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda city, Kazakhstan
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026