The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan
Kelesbayev D. Myrzabekkyzy K. Bolganbayev A. Baimaganbetov S.
18 May 2022Econjournals
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
2022#12Issue 3477 - 481 pp.
Increases in oil prices (OPs) cause inflation. Interest rates are expected to decrease as a result of the expansionary monetary policies of the central banks in response to the indirect effect of increasing OPs on inflation. Because an increase in OP creates an additional foreign currency inflow to Kazakhstan, this leads to the appreciation of its national currency tenge. Therefore, this study uses monthly Brent OP, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) values for the period 2015:M1–2021:M11 to investigate the effect of OP on inflation and real exchange rate in Kazakhstan. Analysis are performed using the Structural Vector Autoregression model. The results showed that while the REER mostly affects the OP, the CPI variable affects the REER.
Inflation , Kazakhstan , Oil Price , Real Effective Exchange Rate , Structural Vector Autoregression
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Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan
Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University
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