Analysis of production, fiscal, and external sector channels of economic growth in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector
Karácsony P. Uralova A. Bekbossinova A. Konyrbekov M. Valkó V.
2026LLC CPC Business Perspectives
Problems and Perspectives in Management
2026#24Issue 1438 - 453 pp.
Given the instability of global energy markets and recurring price shocks, it is increasingly important to assess the sustainability of economic growth in countries heavily dependent on oil and gas, such as Kazakhstan. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the oil and gas sector’s production, fiscal and external sector transmission channels on Kazakhstan’s economic growth during 2010–2024. The empirical base includes official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Finance, and the World Bank, as well as economic indicators related to exchange-rate dynamics and inflation. The study employs a combination of cointegration analysis, vector error correction models (VECM), and short-term ordinary least squares (OLS) specifications. The results show that oil production and GDP are linked by a stable long-term relationship, with the error-correction term indicating that about 24% of deviations from equilibrium are eliminated per year. Gas production emerges as a key short-term growth factor: a one-thousand-ton increase in gas production is associated with a 5.26 billion tenge (11.8 million USD) in GDP (p = 0.002). Tax revenues from the oil and gas sector exert a moderate positive effect on economic dynamics (p = 0.065), reflecting fiscal sensitivity to external conditions. The external sector channel exhibits the strongest short-term effect: a one-unit depreciation of tenge is associated with an average increase of 2.61 × 105 tenge in nominal GDP (p < 0.01). Overall, the results indicate that Kazakhstan’s economic growth is shaped by long-term dependence on production and short-term transmission of price and financial shocks.
energy economy , energy market , fiscal channel , industry policy , Kazakhstan , oil and gas , production channel
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Department of Marketing, Management and Methodology, Keleti Karoly Faculty of Business and Management, Obuda University, Hungary
Department of Economics and Finance, Yessenov University, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev, Kazakhstan
Institute of Economics of the Science Committee, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Economics, Health Sciences and Social Studies, Institute of Economics and Management, Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church in Hungary, Hungary
Department of Marketing
Department of Economics and Finance
Faculty of Finance and Accounting
Institute of Economics of the Science Committee
Faculty of Economics
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