Modeling tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan using SARIMA and SIR models
Kalizhanova A. Yerdessov S. Sakko Y. Tursynbayeva A. Kadyrov S. Gaipov A. Kashkynbayev A.
December 2024Nature Research
Scientific Reports
2024#14Issue 1
Tuberculosis (TB) is a highly contagious disease that remains a global concern affecting numerous countries. Kazakhstan has been facing considerable challenges in TB prevention and treatment for decades. This study aims to understand TB transmission dynamics by developing and comparing statistical and deterministic models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). TB data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) using retrospective quantitative analysis. SARIMA models were able to capture seasonal variations, with Model 2 exhibiting superior predictive accuracy. Both models showed declining TB incidence and revealed a notable predictive performance evaluated by statistical metrics. In addition, the SIR model calculated the basic reproduction number () below 1, indicating a receding epidemic. Models proved the capability of each to accurately capture trends (SARIMA) and provide mathematical insights (SIR) into TB transmission dynamics. This study contributes to the general knowledge of TB transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan thus laying the foundation for more comprehensive studies on TB and control strategies.
Forecasting , Kazakhstan , SARIMA , SIR , Statistical modeling , Tuberculosis
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Department of Mathematics, School of Sciences and Humanities, Nazarbayev University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Medicine, Nazarbayev University School of Medicine, Astana, Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Physio Pulmonologist Association, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of General Education, New Uzbekistan University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Suleyman Demirel University, Kaskelen, Kazakhstan
Department of Mathematics
Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling
Department of Medicine
Kazakhstan Physio Pulmonologist Association
Department of General Education
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
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