Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment in Kazakhstan: An ARDL Approach
Kakizhanova T. Kabylkairatkyzy R. Satpayeva Z. Kondybayeva S. Andabayeva G.
2026Economic Laboratory for Transition Research
Montenegrin Journal of Economics
2026#22Issue 171 - 84 pp.
Despite the fact that in Kazakhstan unemployment rate has remained stable over the past few years, the gap between social classes and other indicators point to a much higher actual unemployment rate in Kazakhstan and existing hidden unemployment. It is expected that by 2030, there will be high demo-graphic pressure on the labor market that led to increased unemployment. To effectively manage the employment and unemployment, it is necessary to identify the influencing factors. The aim of this article is to define and evaluate the macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in Kazakhstan. To achieve the research, an autoregressive distributed lag model of the effect of the oil price, foreign direct investment, gross capital formation, inflation, GDP per person employed, broad money, gross national expenditure and general government expenditure on unemployment rate was used. Information base of the study was a secondary data of World Data Bank Indicators (WDI) and Macrotrends.com from 1993 to 2022. According to the findings, in short-run and long-run perspectives oil price and general government spending have positive effect on unemployment. Gross capital formation and Inflation have negative effect on unemployment rate. Foreign direct investments don’t have impact on the unemployment rate. Moreover, unemployment rate itself de-pends on its previous year’s indicator. In order to develop the country’s economy and to reduce unemployment, the state should intensify the development of infrastructure and domestic production, and structure of government spending should be reconsidered and carefully monitored.
ARDL , long-run effect , macroeconomic indicators , Unemployment
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Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Innovative and Technological Development, Institute of Economics of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Department of Innovative and Technological Development
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