MACROMODELING OF LOCAL POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM BALANCE FORECASTING USING FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF LOAD AND GENERATION SCHEDULES
MAKROMODELOWANIE PROGNOZOWANIA BILANSU LOKALNEGO SYSTEMU ELEKTROENERGETYCZNEGO Z WYKORZYSTANIEM FRAKTALNYCH WŁAŚCIWOŚCI PLANÓW OBCIĄŻENIA I GENERACJI
Jarykbassov D. Lezhniuk P. Hunko I. Lysyi V. Dobrovolska L.
2023Politechnika Lubelska
Informatyka, Automatyka, Pomiary w Gospodarce i Ochronie Srodowiska
2023#13Issue 379 - 82 pp.
A method of forecasting the balance of electricity consumption of urban development objects, civil purposes using discrete macromodels is proposed. We consider the power supply system (PSS) of the district, which is characterised by power supply from general-purpose power grids, as well as having its own generation of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). Such a local electric power system (LES) under certain conditions can be operated as an independent balanced electrical facility. For optimal operation of the LES under these conditions, it is necessary to predict its power consumption schedules. The proposed macromodelling method allows to develop deterministic models of power consumption with the required accuracy on the basis of retrospective information without the use of data preprocessing procedures. The solution to the problem of forecasting electricity consumption schedules is simplified by using only basic or deterministic characteristics in the construction of the model. These include fractal properties of PSS load schedules.
fractal properties , macromodelling , power consumption forecasting , power supply system , urban development
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Academy of Logistics and Transport, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine
Lutsk National Technical University, Lutsk, Ukraine
Academy of Logistics and Transport
Institute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Vinnytsia National Technical University
Lutsk National Technical University
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