Hydro-Climatic and Multi-Temporal Remote Analysis of Glacier and Moraine Lake Changes in the Ile-Alatau Mountains (1955–2024), Northern Tien Shan
Iskaliyeva G. Merekeyev A. Sydyk N. Amangeldi A.A. Abishev B. Baygurin Z.
December 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Atmosphere
2025#16Issue 12
High-mountain regions such as the Ile-Alatau range of the Northern Tien Shan are highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations, where even minor variations in temperature and precipitation significantly influence glacier mass balance and hydrology. Despite this sensitivity, few long-term studies have examined the links between hydro-climatic trends, glacier retreat, and moraine lake development. This study investigates multi-decadal glacier and lake dynamics (1955–2024) in relation to observed climate variability, using an integrated hydro-climatic and remote-sensing approach. Temperature and precipitation records from four high-altitude meteorological stations were assessed using linear regression and the Mann–Kendall test, while glacier and lake extents were derived from aerial photographs and Landsat, Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope imagery across ten river basins. Results show statistically significant warming at all stations, with mean annual temperatures increasing by 0.14–0.28 °C per decade and summer temperatures by 0.15–0.30 °C, while precipitation remained stable or slightly decreased. Glacierized area decreased from approximately 269.6 km2 in 1955 to 141.7 km2 in 2021, representing a 47.4% reduction (≈−0.72% yr−1) over six decades and underscoring the rapid regional cryospheric response to sustained climatic warming. Simultaneously, moraine-dammed lakes increased by 16–18% between 2017 and 2024. These trends highlight the dominant climatic control on glacier loss and lake evolution, emphasizing growing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and the need for adaptive water-resource management in Central Asia.
Central Asia , climate change , glacier retreat , hydro-climatic trends , Ile-Alatau Mountains , moraine lakes , remote sensing
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
Institute of Ionosphere, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Water Resources and IT Technologies, Kazakh National Agrarian Research University, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
State Institution “Kazselezashchita”, Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
Department of Surveying and Geodesy, Satbayev University, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
Institute of Ionosphere
Faculty of Water Resources and IT Technologies
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences
State Institution “Kazselezashchita”
Department of Surveying and Geodesy
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026