Risk assessment of highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in wild bird species in Kazakhstan
Iglesias I. Ruzmatov S. Ibañez-Porras P. Kadyrov A. Bakishev T. Korennoy F. Perez A. Abdrakhmanov S.
2025German Multidisciplinary Publishing Center
German Journal of Veterinary Research
2025#5Issue 376 - 93 pp.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 continues to expand globally, posing a growing threat to wildlife, poultry, and humans. Kazakhstan, located at the intersection of the Central Asian, West Asian–East African, and Black Sea-Mediterranean flyways, includes extensive wetlands and supports large populations of migratory waterbirds, making it a critical area for HPAI surveillance. This study provides a spatio-temporal risk assessment and a weighted priority list of wild bird species potentially involved in HPAI dynamics in Kazakhstan. Using eBird records (2019–2023), we compiled 25,828 georeferenced observations representing 137 species identified as risk taxa based on global HPAI evidence, ecological traits, and taxonomic similarity. A semi-quantitative scoring framework integrating ecological risk group, local abundance, and documented HPAI infection ranked species into high (n=38), moderate (n=76), and precautionary (n=23) priority levels. Temporal analyses revealed pronounced peaks in high-risk groups during the spring (April–June) and autumn (September–November) seasons. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses highlighted recurrent hotspots in central (Akmola/Tselinograd), western (Caspian coastal oblasts), and southeastern (Almaty/Alakol Lake) Kazakhstan, with seven statistically significant clusters identifying discrete surveillance windows during migration and breeding. This framework emphasizes the importance of integrating citizen science data with eco-epidemiological criteria and spatial modeling to inform targeted surveillance. By generating a prioritized list of wild bird species potentially involved in HPAI dynamics for surveillance and delineating sentinel regions, our findings provide a foundation for risk-based monitoring and early warning systems for HPAI in Kazakhstan, with clear applicability to other countries situated along major migratory flyways.
Citizen science , Epidemiology , Highly pathogenic avian influenza , Kazakhstan , Risk assessment , Surveillance , Wild birds
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Center for Research in Animal Health (CISA), National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
Institute of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Federal Centre for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russian Federation
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Branch in Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul Campus, St. Paul, MN, United States
Center for Research in Animal Health (CISA)
Institute of Animal and Veterinary Sciences
Federal Centre for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH)
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology
Center for Animal Health and Food Safety
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