Global and local aspects of world energy consumption: Forecast and risks
Hajiyev N. Abdimomynova A. Trukhan D.
1 June 2022ICE Publishing
Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers: Energy
2022#176Issue 4197 - 214 pp.
The purpose of this study is to form a forecast of energy consumption at the global level in the long term, taking into account sectoral changes and the identification of possible deviation limits. Projections of total energy consumption at the global level, as well as by sector, were based on correlation analysis, autoregressive modelling and cluster analysis. The scientific contribution of this study is the formed forecast of energy consumption by regions and sectors until 2050, which is supplemented by clustering. Based on the developed forecasts of global energy consumption with a geographical distribution, the simulated results show that there is a slight increase in energy consumption in Europe compared to the other regions under study. The most significant increase in energy consumption is predicted in the Middle East. The study indicates the risk of exceeding the volume of energy consumption compared to the forecasts of international organisations, which were formed in previous years. The clustering showed the possible stratification of the world community in the context of energy consumption, which signals the migration of values of countries in the context of energy supply and increasing sustainability of the external environment.
energy , energy conservation , renewable energy
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Department of Economics and Business Administration, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
Department of Economic Theory and Public Administration, Korkyt Ata Kyzylorda University, Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan
Department of In-Plant Electrical Equipment and Automation, Kuban State Technological University (branch), Armavir Institute of Mechanics and Technology, Armavir, Russian Federation
Department of Economics and Business Administration
Department of Economic Theory and Public Administration
Department of In-Plant Electrical Equipment and Automation
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