Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change
Ferrer Obiol J. Bounas A. Brambilla M. Lombardo G. Secomandi S. Paris J.R. Iannucci A. Whiting J.R. Formenti G. Bonisoli-Alquati A. Ficetola G.F. Galimberti A. Balacco J. Batbayar N. Bragin A.E. Caprioli M. Catry I. Cecere J.G. Davaasuren B. De Pascalis F. Efrat R. Erciyas-Yavuz K. Gameiro J. Gradev G. Haase B. Katzner T.E. Mountcastle J. Mikulic K. Morganti M. Pârâu L.G. Rodríguez A. Sarà M. Toli E.-A. Tsiopelas N. Ciofi C. Gianfranceschi L. Jarvis E.D. Olivieri A. Sotiropoulos K. Wink M. Trucchi E. Torroni A. Rubolini D.
December 2025Nature Research
Nature Communications
2025#16Issue 1
Accurately predicting species’ responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species’ responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.
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Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
Department of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece
Dipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie “Lazzaro Spallanzani”, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Dipartimento di Bioscienze, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
Laboratory of Neurogenetics of Language, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, United States
Dipartimento di Medicina clinica, Sanità pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Coppito, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy
Dipartimento di Biologia, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
The Vertebrate Genome Laboratory, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, United States
Department of Biological Sciences, California State Polytechnic University - Pomona, Pomona, CA, United States
National Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC), Palermo, Italy
Dipartimento di Biotecnologie e Bioscienze, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
Wildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
NGO Naurzum, Kostanay, Kazakhstan
Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C) & CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
Area Avifauna Migratrice, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Ozzano dell’Emilia, Italy
Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
Ornithological Research Center, Ondokuz Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey
CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratorio Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal
CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratorio Associado, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
Green Balkans - Stara Zagora NGO, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria
Department of Agroecology, Agricultural University - Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
U. S. Geological Survey, Boise, ID, United States
IBIS program LTD, Zagreb, Croatia
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (CNR-IRSA), Brugherio, Italy
Institute of Pharmacy and Molecular Biotechnology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN), CSIC, Madrid, Spain
Dipartimento STEBICEF, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Hellenic Ornithological Society, Athens, Greece
Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali
Department of Biological Applications and Technology
Dipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie “Lazzaro Spallanzani”
Dipartimento di Bioscienze
Laboratory of Neurogenetics of Language
Dipartimento di Medicina clinica
Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente
Dipartimento di Biologia
Department of Biological Sciences
The Vertebrate Genome Laboratory
Department of Biological Sciences
National Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC)
Dipartimento di Biotecnologie e Bioscienze
Wildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia
NGO Naurzum
Centre for Ecology
Area Avifauna Migratrice
Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology
Ornithological Research Center
CIBIO
CIBIO
BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics
Green Balkans - Stara Zagora NGO
Department of Agroecology
U. S. Geological Survey
IBIS program LTD
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (CNR-IRSA)
Institute of Pharmacy and Molecular Biotechnology
Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva
Dipartimento STEBICEF
Hellenic Ornithological Society
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