Atmospheric dust: cluster based frequency and intensity projections in Central Asia under SSP scenarios
Fard A.M. Broomandi P. Bagheri M. Middleton N. Ledari D.G. Fathian A. Shafiei S. Leuchner M. Kim J.R.
December 2025Elsevier B.V.
Aeolian Research
2025#74
Atmospheric dust significantly influences regional and global climate systems, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (CA), where it impacts air quality, visibility, and human health. This study provides the first comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of future dust levels in CA using aerosol optical thickness (AOT) under climate change scenarios to support effective adaptation and mitigation efforts. Multi-ensemble CMIP6 models show notable variability across six clusters under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. In the near-future, localized increases are observed—for example, Cluster 1, covering the flat, lowland regions of northern Kazakhstan, shows an annual slope of 0.61 under SSP2–4.5, while Cluster 3, which includes the northwestern lowlands near the Caspian Sea and the mountainous southeastern regions of CA, shows a slight decline of −0.14 under SSP5–8.5. By the far-future, under SSP5–8.5, Cluster 1 shows a sharp decline (slope = -3.94), while Cluster 3 experiences a moderate decrease of −2.31. Projections also indicate a strong rise in low-intensity events, particularly in Cluster 1, with a 137.1% increase under SSP5–8.5, reaching 32,432 annual events by 2100. In contrast, high-intensity events are expected to decline, especially in Cluster 2 (southern Kazakhstan desert and semi-desert areas), which is projected to experience a 47.7% decrease under SSP5–8.5. These findings show that SSP2–4.5 favors stabilization by moderating extremes, while SSP5–8.5 increases variability and localized dust intensification. The results offer key insights for guiding targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to address dust-related environmental and societal challenges in CA.
Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) , Climate change projections , CMIP6 models , Emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) , Regional adaptation strategies , Spatiotemporal analysis
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Faculty of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, 484, Iran
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
St Annes College, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6HS, United Kingdom
Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics (waterSHED) Lab, Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary Alberta, T2N 1N4, Canada
Physical Geography and Climatology, Department of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstr. 5b, Aachen, 52056, Germany
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
St Annes College
Water
Physical Geography and Climatology
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