Prospects for the Development of Foreign Trade of Kazakhstan with the Countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Dulambayeva R.T. Yessenzholova G.D.
2022Institute of Economics Committee of Science MSHE RK
Economy: strategy and practice
2022#17Issue 2160 - 177 pp.
The study is devoted to the study of the prospects for the development of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade with the countries of the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (CREP) by analyzing the indicators of the openness of the economy and the use of econometric forecasting models. The relevance of the work is due to the need to consider the prospects for the development of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade relations with the new trade association CREP for further formation of directions for the development of such relations based on the principles of evidence-based policy, since the results obtained in the study can serve as a basis for making public management decisions in the field of trade and customs policy. Within the framework of the article, the authors applied a strategy of combined research methods with a comparative analysis of the results of using each of them. Thus, econometric methods of Box-Jenkins forecasting, exponential smoothing with the use of tests to check their adequacy and validity were used. Forecast errors are calculated, such as the root-mean-square error, the average absolute error and the average absolute error as a percentage. The study resulted in forecasts of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover with the CREP countries for the short term, which allowed us to conclude about the positive dynamics of the development of these trade relations. A more accurate forecast is presented based on the use of the exponential smoothing method, which demonstrates the smallest error size and is easier to apply.
Box-Jenkins Method , Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership , Customs Regulation , Economics , Exponential Smoothing , Strategy , Trade Policy
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 33a Abai Ave., Nur-Sultan, Z00P5M4, Kazakhstan
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 33a Abai Ave., Nur-Sultan, Z00P5M4, Kazakhstan
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026