Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Douglas K.M. Sutton R.M. Van Lissa C.J. Stroebe W. Kreienkamp J. Agostini M. Bélanger J.J. Gützkow B. Abakoumkin G. Khaiyom J.H.A. Ahmedi V. Akkas H. Almenara C.A. Atta M. Bagci S.C. Basel S. Berisha Kida E. Bernardo A.B.I. Buttrick N.R. Chobthamkit P. Choi H.-S. Cristea M. Csaba S. Damnjanovic K. Danyliuk I. Dash A. Di Santo D. Enea V. Faller D.G. Fitzsimons G. Gheorghiu A. Gómez Á. Hamaidia A. Han Q. Helmy M. Hudiyana J. Jeronimus B.F. Yu Jiang D. Jovanović V. Kamenov Ž. Kende A. Keng S.-L. Kieu T.T.T. Koc Y. Kovyazina K. Kozytska I. Krause J. Kruglanski A.W. Kurapov A. Kutlaca M. Lantos N.A. Lemay E.P., Jr. Lesmana C.B.J. Louis W.R. Lueders A. Malik N.I. Martinez A. McCabe K.O. Mehulić J. Milla M.N. Mohammed I. Molinario E. Moyano M. Muhammad H. Mula S. Muluk H. Myroniuk S. Najafi R. Nisa C.F. Nyúl B. OKeefe P.A. Olivas Osuna J.J. Osin E.N. Park J. Pica G. Pierro A. Rees J. Reitsema A.M. Resta E. Rullo M. Ryan M.K. Samekin A. Santtila P. Sasin E. Schumpe B.M. Selim H.A. Stanton M.V. Sultana S. Tseliou E. Utsugi A. van Breen J.A. Van Veen K. vanDellen M.R. Vázquez A. Wollast R. Yeung V.W.-L. Zand S. Žeželj I.L. Zheng B. Zick A. Zúñiga C. Leander N.P.
October 2023 John Wiley and Sons Ltd

European Journal of Social Psychology
2023 #53 Issue 6 1191 - 1203 pp.

Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies.

conspiracy theories , country-level variables , COVID-19 , individual-level variables , machine learning

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University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom
Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands
University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan, Malaysia
University of Prishtina, Prishtina, Kosovo
Ankara Science University, Ankara, Turkey
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
University of Sargodha, Punjab, Sargodha, Pakistan
Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey
De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
Thammasat University, Pathumthani, Thailand
Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Jongno-gu, South Korea
Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania
Independent Researcher, Singapore
Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain
Setif 2 University, Setif, Algeria
University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Menoufia University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt
Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman
Universitas Indonesia, Jawa Barat, Depok, Indonesia
National Chung-Cheng University, Minhsiung, Taiwan
University of Novi Sad, Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore
HCMC University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Independent Researcher, Kazakhstan
University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Paris Lodron University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria
Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
Udayana University, Bali, Bukit Jimbaran, Indonesia
University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria
Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, United States
University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Andalucía, Spain
University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan
University ‘La Sapienza’, Lazio, Rome, Italy
University of Padova, Padova, Italy
National Distance Education University (UNED), Madrid, Spain
HSE University, Moskva, Russian Federation
NUCB Business School, Nagoya, Japan
University of Camerino, Marche, Camerino, Italy
University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
University of Siena, Arezzo, Italy
The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University, Astana, Kazakhstan
New York University Shanghai, Shanghai, China
University of Amsterdam, Noord-Holland, Amsterdam, Netherlands
King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
California State University, East Bay, Hayward, CA, United States
Nagoya University, Aichi, Nagoya, Japan
Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
Lingnan University, Hong Kong
University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, United States

University of Kent
Tilburg University
University of Groningen
New York University Abu Dhabi
University of Thessaly
International Islamic University Malaysia
University of Prishtina
Ankara Science University
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas
University of Sargodha
Sabanci University
De La Salle University
University of Virginia
Thammasat University
Sungkyunkwan University
Heriot Watt University
ELTE Eötvös Loránd University
University of Belgrade
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
International University of Business Agriculture and Technology
University of Pisa
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University
Independent Researcher
Duke University
Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
Setif 2 University
University of Bristol
Menoufia University
Sultan Qaboos University
Universitas Indonesia
National Chung-Cheng University
University of Novi Sad
University of Zagreb
Yale-NUS College
HCMC University of Education
Independent Researcher
University of Maryland
Paris Lodron University of Salzburg
Durham University
Udayana University
University of Queensland
University of Hohenheim
University of Sheffield
Carleton University
Usmanu Danfodiyo University
Florida Gulf Coast University
University of Cordoba
University of Peshawar
University ‘La Sapienza’
University of Padova
National Distance Education University (UNED)
HSE University
NUCB Business School
University of Camerino
University of Bielefeld
University of Siena
The Australian National University
M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University
New York University Shanghai
University of Amsterdam
King Saud University
California State University
Nagoya University
Leiden University
University of Georgia
Lingnan University
University of Milano-Bicocca
Imperial College London
Universidad de Chile
Wayne State University

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