Probabilistic Analysis of Wedge Failures and Stability of Underground Workings with Combined Support Under Thrust Faulting Conditions
Demin V. Kalinin A. Tomilova N. Tomilov A. Mutovina N. Akpanbayeva A. Demina T.
October 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Applied Sciences (Switzerland)
2025#15Issue 19
Ensuring the stability of surrounding rock in underground excavations is a critical prerequisite for safe mining operations. This study examines the mechanisms of wedge failure formation and determines the performance of a combined support system (rock bolts + shotcrete) through probabilistic analysis. Field investigations in the Zhylandy ore field (Kazakhstan) included fracture mapping, rock mass quality assessment (RQD), fracture frequency (FF), and in situ stress measurements, which confirmed a thrust-faulting regime. Numerical modeling with Dips ver.8 and UnWedge ver.6 software (Rocscience) identified critical excavation orientations of 120° and 141° associated with maximum-volume wedge formation, as well as a “safe orientation window” of 70° ± 10°. The probabilistic analysis showed that rock bolts alone yield a factor of safety (FS) < 1.2, whereas the combined support system increases FS to 2.4–3.5, significantly reducing the likelihood of wedge failures. An adaptive framework integrating numerical modeling with intelligent monitoring (“monitor → update model → adjust support”) is proposed, allowing real-time adjustment of support parameters and optimization of material consumption. The practical significance of this work lies in providing design-ready recommendations for support selection and excavation orientation, contributing to accident prevention and sustainable mining operations.
combined support , intelligent monitoring , probabilistic analysis , rock bolts , rock mass stability , shotcrete , thrust faulting , wedge failure
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Department of Information and Computing Systems, Abylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical University, Karaganda, 100027, Kazakhstan
Department of Mining Safety, Ural State Mining University, Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russian Federation
Department of Information and Computing Systems
Department of Mining Safety
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