LONG TERM FORECAST OF THE MONTHLY FLOW HYDROGRAPH OF YERTIS RIVER (VILLAGE BORAN) BASED ON COMBINED STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE RIVER FLOW AND PRECIPITATION
Davletgaliev S.K. Alimkulov S.K. Tursunova A.A. Talipova E.K.
2023National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2023#2023Issue 670 - 84 pp.
The article provides an attempt to make scenario forecasts of the Yertis river flow (v. Boran) based on combined statistical modeling of the river flow and atmospheric precipitation. Forecasting by the canonical expansion method makes it possible to forecast not only the annual runoff, but also its distribution within the year by the monthly time intervals, as well as the possibility of making a forecast with any time period from one year to several years, depending on the period time of meteorological forecasts, taking into account possible climate changes. To check the quality of the modeling, the obtained simulated data of mean precipitation and runoff, coefficients of variation and asymmetry, auto and cross-correlation were compared with the actual data. Results of checking statistical modeling for the hydrological station of the Ertis River – p. Boran showed that the deviation of modeled data from actual data on annual and vegetation runoff in high-water years is 20–23 %, in average-water years it is 3–4 %, and in low-water years – 29–33 %. Consequently, the canonical expansion method can be used to assess changes in river runoff under conditions of current climate change, as well as for the future prospective. According to the estimates obtained on the river. Ertis – s. Boran in general is expected to increase annual flow by up to 10% of normal flow.
canonical expansion , climatic scenarios , flow hydrograph , long-term forecast of the river runoff , monthly flow , precipitation , statistical modeling , temperature
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Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Geography and Water Safety, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Institute of Geography and Water Safety
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