Dynamic variations in COVID-19 with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Kazakhstan and Pakistan

Cui Q. Shi Z. Yimamaidi D. Hu B. Zhang Z. Saqib M. Zohaib A. Gulnara B. Yersyn M. Hu Z. Li S.
December 2023 BioMed Central Ltd

Infectious Diseases of Poverty
2023 #12 Issue 1

Background: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the Omicron variant presents a formidable challenge for control and prevention worldwide, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence, taking Kazakhstan and Pakistan as examples, this study aims to explore COVID-19 transmission with the Omicron variant at different contact, quarantine and test rates. Methods: A disease dynamic model was applied, the population was segmented, and three time stages for Omicron transmission were established: the initial outbreak, a period of stabilization, and a second outbreak. The impact of population contact, quarantine and testing on the disease are analyzed in five scenarios to analysis their impacts on the disease. Four statistical metrics are employed to quantify the model’s performance, including the correlation coefficient (CC), normalized absolute error, normalized root mean square error and distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO). Results: Our model has high performance in simulating COVID-19 transmission in Kazakhstan and Pakistan with high CC values greater than 0.9 and DISO values less than 0.5. Compared with the present measures (baseline), decreasing (increasing) the contact rates or increasing (decreasing) the quarantined rates can reduce (increase) the peak values of daily new cases and forward (delay) the peak value times (decreasing 842 and forward 2 days for Kazakhstan). The impact of the test rates on the disease are weak. When the start time of stage II is 6 days, the daily new cases are more than 8 and 5 times the rate for Kazakhstan and Pakistan, respectively (29,573 vs. 3259; 7398 vs. 1108). The impact of the start times of stage III on the disease are contradictory to those of stage II. Conclusions: For the two LMICs, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, stronger control and prevention measures can be more effective in combating COVID-19. Therefore, to reduce Omicron transmission, strict management of population movement should be employed. Moreover, the timely application of these strategies also plays a key role in disease control. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

COVID-19 , Cumulative confirmed cases , Daily new confirmed cases , Omicron , Pandemic , Prediction , Simulation

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School of Mathematics and Statistics, Ningxia University, Ningxia, Yinchuan, 750021, China
Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071, China
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang, Ürümqi, 830011, China
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang, Ürümqi, 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Ürümqi, 830017, China
Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan
Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, Pakistan
Veterinary Medicine Department, Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Astana, Kazakhstan
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Centre for Tropical Diseases Research), NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Centre for International Research On Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China

School of Mathematics and Statistics
Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences
Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery
Department of Microbiology
Veterinary Medicine Department
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases

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