Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure
Court R. Lattuada M. Shumeyko N. Baimukanov M. Eybatov T. Kaidarova A. Mamedov E.V. Rustamov E. Tasmagambetova A. Prange M. Wilke T. Hassall C. Goodman S.J.
December 2025Nature Publishing Group
Communications Earth and Environment
2025#6Issue 1
The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked waterbody, providing habitat for hundreds of endemic and migratory species, along with ecosystem services that sustain millions of people. Global warming is projected to drive declines in water levels of up to 21 m by 2100. Using geospatial analyses, we assessed the impact of sea level decline on habitats, protected areas, and human infrastructure. We show that a water level decline of just 5–10 m will critically disrupt key ecosystems (including habitats for endemic Caspian seals and sturgeon), reduce existing marine protected area coverage by up to 94%, and render billions of dollars of civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete. Replacing traditional static conservation planning with a pre-emptive, dynamic approach that allows protected areas to track shifting ecosystems, is recommended to help endemic Caspian Sea biodiversity adapt to these changes, and to avoid conflicts with mitigation efforts directed at protecting human activities.
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School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Landscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis, Institute of Geoecology, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Brunswick, Germany
Plant Ecology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Kaspika Caspian Seals Conservation Agency, Moscow, Russian Federation
Institute of Hydrobiology & Ecology, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Museum of Natural History, Baku, Azerbaijan
Central Asian Institute of Ecological Research, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Fisheries and Aquaculture Research Centre, Biodiversity Protection Service, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Baku, Azerbaijan
Ramsar Regional Initiative of Central Asia (RRI-CA), Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
MARUM – Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Institute of Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
School of Earth and Environment, Faculty of Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
School of Biology
Landscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis
Plant Ecology
Kaspika Caspian Seals Conservation Agency
Institute of Hydrobiology & Ecology
Museum of Natural History
Central Asian Institute of Ecological Research
Fisheries and Aquaculture Research Centre
Ramsar Regional Initiative of Central Asia (RRI-CA)
MARUM – Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences
Institute of Ecology and Systematics
School of Earth and Environment
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