The Productivity of Low-Elevation Juniper Forests in Central Asia Increased Under Moderate Warming Scenarios

Chen F. Yu S. Shang H. Zhang R. Zhang T. Zhang H. Chen Y. Satylkanov R. Ermenbaev B. Kobuliev Z. Ahmadov A. Kodirov A. Maisupova B.
April 2021 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
2021 #126 Issue 4

Clear trends of warming and wetting have occurred in Central Asia during the last 30 years, but how tree growth in low-elevation mountainous areas has responded to climate warming remains unclear. In this paper, we investigated the relationships between Zeravschan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica) growth and climate factors based on 16 tree-ring chronologies from low-elevation mountainous areas across Central Asia and then used the resulting model to predict changes in Zeravschan juniper growth during the 21st century. Zeravschan juniper growth in our study region is mainly controlled by precipitation, which is predominantly influenced by tropical sea surface temperatures. The combination of increased precipitation and warm temperatures promoted the growth of Zeravschan juniper during the recent warm period. Our simulations suggest that Zeravschan juniper growth will still increase slightly under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the next 30 years, possibly due to increased precipitation caused by climate warming; however, climate warming will initially show negative effects and is expected to have greater effects after the 2050s. Better knowledge regarding regional climate mechanisms and their likely influences on tree growth is useful for improving forest planning and management in Central Asia.

Central Asia , climate warming , NDVI variation , tree growth , tree ring , Zeravschan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica)

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Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China
Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific Center, Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Institute of Water Problems, Hydroenergy and Ecology, Academy of Science of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Almaty Branch of Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Forestry, Ministries of Agriculture, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology
Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific Center
Institute of Water Problems
Almaty Branch of Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Forestry

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