Variability of Middle East springtime dust events between 2011 and 2022
Broomandi P. Galán-Madruga D. Satyanaga A. Hamidi M. Ledari D.G. Fathian A. Sarvestan R. Janatian N. Jahanbakhshi A. Bagheri M. Karaca F. Al-Dousari A. Kim J.R.
June 2024Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health
2024#17Issue 61341 - 1360 pp.
The Middle East frontal sand and dust storms (SDS) occur in non-summer seasons, and represent an important phenomenon of this region’s climate. Among the mentioned type, spring SDS are the most common. Trend analysis was used in the current study to investigate the spatial-temporal variability of springtime dust events in the Middle East using synoptic station observation from 2011 to 2022. The plausible changes in some controlling factors of dust activity at selected important dust sources in the Middle East were also studied during this time period. Our results showed a statistically significant spike in springtime dust events across the Middle East, particularly in May 2022. To evaluate the relative importance of controlling factors, the applied feature of importance analysis using random forest (RF) showed the higher relative importance of topsoil layer wetness, surface soil temperature, and surface wind speed in dust activity over the Middle East between 2011 and 2022. Long-term trend analysis of topsoil moisture and temperature, using the Mann-Kendall trend test, showed a decrease in soil moisture and an increase in soil temperature in some selected important dust sources in the Middle East. Moreover, our predictions using ARIMA models showed a high tendency to dust activities in selected major dust origins (domain 2 and domain 5) with a statistically significant increase (p-value < 0.05) between 2023 and 2029. Observed spatial and temporal changes within SDS hotspots can act as the first step to build up for the first time an SDS precise intensity scale, as well as establishing an SDS early warning system in future.
ARIMA model , Drought , Mann-Kendall trend test , Sand and dust storms , Soil moisture , Soil temperature , the Middle East
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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Atmospheric Pollution, National Centre for Environment Health, Health Institute Carlos III, Ctra. Majadahonda a Pozuelo km 2.2, Madrid, 28220, Spain
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran
School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Neotectonics and Natural Hazards Institute, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany
UNESCO Chair on Coastal Geo-Hazard Analysis, Research Institute for Earth Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics (waterSHED) Lab, Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada
Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
Department of Geoscience and Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, CN, Delft, 2628, Netherlands
Department of Marine Systems, Division of Modelling and Remote Sensing, Tallinn University of Technology (Taltech), Tallinn, Estonia
School of Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, United Kingdom
Environment and Resource Efficiency Cluster (EREC), Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
Crisis Decision Support Program, Environment and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait City, Kuwait
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Department of Atmospheric Pollution
Faculty of Civil Engineering
School of Civil Engineering
Neotectonics and Natural Hazards Institute
UNESCO Chair on Coastal Geo-Hazard Analysis
Water
Department of Climatology
Department of Geoscience and Engineering
Department of Marine Systems
School of Architecture
Environment and Resource Efficiency Cluster (EREC)
Crisis Decision Support Program
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