Energy Generation and Carbon Footprint under Future Projections (2022–2100) of Central Asian Temperature Extremes

Broomandi P. Bagheri M. Fard A.M. Fathian A. Abdoli M. Roshani A. Shafiei S. Leuchner M. Kim J.R.
May 2025 John Wiley and Sons Inc

Global Challenges
2025 #9 Issue 5

Limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C is becoming increasingly difficult. The study analyzed data from 700 locations (1962–2100) to assess climate change impacts on heating-cooling energy and carbon footprint in under-researched Central Asia (CA). Under SSP2-4.5, icing and frost days reduce, while summer days and tropical nights increase. Central Asian countries will see an increase in cooling needs despite the projected decline in heating demands, with Kyrgyzstan experiencing the highest rise in cooling degree days, projected to increase by 132% and 165% in the near-future under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. As a result, cooling energy generation is expected to rise by 39% and 92% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. However, CO₂ emissions for cooling are much lower in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to their reliance on renewable energy. CO₂ emissions in these countries are projected to be ≈10 times lower than in other parts of CA. From 2022 to 2100, cooling-related emissions are estimated to increase by 41% and 80% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively across CA. Urgent adaptation is needed for resilient cities and stable power by expanding renewables, modernizing infrastructure, boosting efficiency, adopting policies, and fostering cooperation.

CO₂ emissions , cooling-heating degree days , energy demand , fossil-fueled development scenario , middle-of-the-road scenario

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, School of Engineering and Digital Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, 484, Iran
Neotectonics and Natural Hazards Institute, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, 52056, Germany
UNESCO Chair on Coastal Geo-Hazard Analysis, Research Institute for Earth Sciences, Tehran, 13185-1494, Iran
Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics (waterSHED) Lab, Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, T2N 1N4, AB, Canada
Physical Geography and Climatology, Department of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstr. 5b, Aachen, 52062, Germany

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Neotectonics and Natural Hazards Institute
UNESCO Chair on Coastal Geo-Hazard Analysis
Water
Physical Geography and Climatology

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