NONLINEAR INPUT-OUTPUT BALANCE AND YOUNG DUALITY: ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 MACROECONOMIC IMPACT ON KAZAKHSTAN

Boranbayev A. Obrosova N. Shananin A.
2022 Sobolev Institute of Mathematics

Siberian Electronic Mathematical Reports
2022 #19 Issue 2 835 - 851 pp.

We discuss the possibilities of the new approach to the interindustry linkages modeling for the analysis of regional macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. Our approach is based on the mathematical framework of nonlinear input-output balance that allows to find the equilibrium point in the set of industry inputs and prices by solving the primal nonlinear resource allocation problem and the Young dual problem of prices formation. We identify and calibrate the model on the base of aggregated official input-output statistics of Kazakhstan. Given the scenario conditions for primal factors prices and final consumption in the economy the model allows to evaluate the new competitive equilibrium in the production network. The advantage of the model is non-linearity of balances and technologies that allows substitution of industry inputs. In the case of technologies with constant elasticity of substitution (CES) we apply the model to analysis of macroeconomic responses of the Kazakhstan economy to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Covid-19 macroeconomic shocks , Input-output table , Resource allocation problem , Supply network. , Young duality

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Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave., Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1,Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
Federal Research Center Computer Science and Control of Russian Academy of Sciences, Vavilov Street 44/2, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University), Institutskiy per. 9,Moscow region, Dolgoprudny, 141701, Russian Federation

Nazarbayev University
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics
Federal Research Center Computer Science and Control of Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)

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