Modeling Scenarios of Climate Change Impacts on Leguminous Crop Production: A Case Study in Kazakhstan
Bolatova Z. Bulkhairova Z. Kulshigashova M.
30 September 2024Unique Scientific Publishers
International Journal of Agriculture and Biosciences
2024#13Issue 3367 - 377 pp.
Climate change affects leguminous crop production in Kazakhstan through drought or cold. The Bulk forecasting Arima model was used for the analysis, and we explored the likely impact of climate change on leguminous crop production in Kazakhstan. A base case and three climate change scenarios from 2030 to 2100 were created, and climate data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and KazHydromet were used. In particular, special attention should be given to the impact of climate change on crop and land decreases, grain quantity and quality reduction. The results show that decreased rainfall and increased temperatures or frost damage the yield of leguminous crops. Different regions have various climates, and climate change will have a positive effect on crop yields in the North and Southeast Regions and will allow farmers to cultivate economically efficient production. The area of cultivated land is expected to decrease (60%) in the southern and northwestern regions of large-scale farms. Farmers adapt to climate change by using hybrid seeds and new irrigation technologies. Frost days will impact the yield of small-scale farms. Leguminous crops are important export crops, and, in some regions, climate change will impact agricultural productivity and food security in Kazakhstan.
Adaptation , Food security , Leguminous crop production; Climate change; Modeling scenarios
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Kazakh National Agrarian Research University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Kazakh National Agrarian Research University
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University
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