The Elusive Turkestan Lynx at the Northwestern Edge of Geographic Range: Current Suitable Habitats and Distribution Forecast in the Climate Change
Bizhanova N. Steiner M. Rametov N. Grachev A. Grachev Y. Bespalov M. Zhaparkulov T. Saparbayev S. Sailaukhanuly A. Bespalov S. Bolatuly A. Saparov K. Sah S.A.M.
August 2022MDPI
Sustainability (Switzerland)
2022#14Issue 15
The Turkestan lynx (Lynx lynx isabellina Blyth, 1847) is a rare and understudied subspecies of the Eurasian lynx occupying the mountains of Central and South Asia. This elusive felid’s northwestern range includes the Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau mountains in the border region of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the first step to conserve this vulnerable carnivore, we have conducted the first full-scale research from 2013 until 2022 on its distribution in this region. Using 132 environmental predictors of 359 lynx sightings, we have created species habitat distribution models across the lynx’s northwestern range using machine learning approaches (Maximum Entropy—MaxEnt). Additionally, we created species distribution forecasts based on seven bio-climatic environmental predictors with each three different future global climate model scenarios. To validate these forecasts, we have calculated the changes in the lynx distribution range for the year 2100, making the first species distribution forecast for the Turkestan lynx in the area. Additionally, it provides insight into the possible effects of global climate change on this lynx population. Based on these distribution models, the lynx population in the Northern and Western Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau plays a significant role in maintaining the stability of the whole subspecies in its northwestern and global range, while the distribution forecast shows that most lynx distribution ranges will reduce in all future climate scenarios, and we might face the Turkestan lynx’s significant distribution range decline under the ongoing and advancing climate change conditions. For a future (year 2100) warming scenario of 3 deg. C (GCM IPSL), we observe a decrease of 35% in Kazakhstan, 40% in Kyrgyzstan, and 30% in China as the three countries with the highest current predicted distribution range. For a milder temperature increase of 1.5–2 deg. C. (GCM MRI), we observe an increase of 17% Kazakhstan, decrease of 10% in Kyrgyzstan, and 57% in China. For a cooling scenario of approx. 1–1.5 deg. C (GCM MIROC), we observe a decrease of 14% Kazakhstan, increase of 11% in Kyrgyzstan, and a decrease of 13% in China. These modeled declines indicate the necessity to create new and expand the existing protected areas and establish ecological corridors between the countries in Central and South Asia.
conservation , Dzhungarian (Zhetisu) Alatau , environmental predictors , Eurasian lynx , MaxEnt , protected areas , species distribution forecast , species distribution models , Tien Shan , Turkestan lynx
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Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty, 050060, Kazakhstan
Wildlife Without Borders Public Fund, Almaty, 050063, Kazakhstan
Department of Animal Science, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, 6708 PB, Netherlands
IUCN Small Mammal Specialist Group (SMSG), IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
Department of Geospatial Engineering, Satpaev Kazakh National Research Technical University, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
Department of Research and Mountain Agrobiocenosis, Ile-Alatau National Park, Almaty, 050067, Kazakhstan
Almaty State Nature Reserve, Almaty, 041600, Kazakhstan
Kolsai Kolderi National Park, Saty, 041422, Kazakhstan
School of Biological Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor, 11800, Malaysia
Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources
Laboratory of Theriology
Wildlife Without Borders Public Fund
Department of Animal Science
IUCN Small Mammal Specialist Group (SMSG)
IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC)
Department of Geospatial Engineering
Department of Research and Mountain Agrobiocenosis
Almaty State Nature Reserve
Kolsai Kolderi National Park
School of Biological Sciences
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