Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan
Bissenbayeva S. Shokparova D. Abuduwaili J. Samat A. Ma L. Ge Y.
August 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Sustainability (Switzerland)
2025#17Issue 15
This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification.
aridity index , Central Kazakhstan , climate change , drought , spatiotemporal variation
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Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences
China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
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