Reaction of Minimal Streamflow to Natural Factors in the Context of Climate Uncertainty
Birimbayeva L. Makhmudova L. Alimkulov S. Tursunova A. Tigkas D. Abayev N. Dostayeva A. Birimbayev Z. Alzhanov O. Rodrigo-Clavero M.-E. Rodrigo-Ilarri J.
September 2025Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Water Resources Management
2025#39Issue 126009 - 6025 pp.
This study analyzes long-term changes in minimal streamflow in the Zhaiyk-Caspian Water Management Basin (WMB), Western Kazakhstan, under climate variability. Using extensive hydrometeorological datasets (monthly discharge and daily meteorological records) from 1940 to 2021, the research assesses trends in low-flow characteristics across 18 hydrological posts. The analysis distinguishes two climatic periods: climate stabilization (pre-1973) and climate change (1974–2021). The methodology integrates hydrological and statistical analyses, including minimal monthly discharges, low-flow durations, soil freezing depths, and thaw frequencies. Findings reveal a widespread increase in winter low flows—up to 5.2 times—due to reduced frost depths and more frequent thaw events, enhancing groundwater contributions. Conversely, summer-autumn flows declined in several rivers, with drying trends linked to rising air temperatures and precipitation deficits. This study offers a novel, regionally adapted methodology for characterizing minimal streamflow under climate change, providing critical insights for hydrological drought assessment and water resource planning in arid and semi-arid environments.
Economic activity , Hydrological drought , Low-flow period , Minimal streamflow , Soil freezing depth , Thaw
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JSC Institute of Geography and water security, Almaty, Kazakhstan
al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Athens, Greece
National Hydrometeorological Service RSE Kazhydromet, Astana, Kazakhstan
Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Valencia, Spain
JSC Institute of Geography and water security
al-Farabi Kazakh National University
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
National Hydrometeorological Service RSE Kazhydromet
Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA)
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