BUILDING A MODEL FOR CHOOSING A STRATEGY FOR REDUCING AIR POLLUTION BASED ON DATA PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

Biloshchytskyi A. Kuchansky A. Andrashko Y. Neftissov A. Vatskel V. Yedilkhan D. Herych M.
2022 Technology Center

Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
2022 #3 Issue 4-117 23 - 30 pp.

This paper formalizes the model of choosing a strategy for reducing air pollution in an urban environment. The model involves determining the optimal location of biotechnological systems – biotechnological filter systems or smart air purification devices based on solving the problem of discrete optimization, taking into consideration the forecast of the air quality index. Two subtasks have been formalized, which make it possible to form a strategy for reducing air pollution. To solve one of the subtasks, a combined selective model for predicting the time series of the Air Quality Index (CSM) was built. The combined model software suite consists of the EMD-ESM hybrid model (Empirical Mode Decomposition-Exponential Smoothing Model), the HWM additive model (Holt-Winters Model), and the adaptive TLM (Trigg-Lich Model). To verify the proposed combined selective model, the time series of air quality indices (AQI) for the city of Nur-Sultan (data from 2010–2021, period 6 hours) were selected. As a result of verification, it was established that in the case of shortterm forecasting of the air quality index time series, the EMD-ESM model has an advantage according to the criterion of a minimum root mean square error (RMSE), δ = 0.11. For the case of medium-term forecasting of 3 < τ ≤ 5, the combined selective model (CSM) has the advantage. The results reported here are input data for the task of choosing strategies for reducing the volume of air pollution in the urban environment. The study’s results make it possible to increase the flexibility of the formation of strategies for reducing air pollution since they avoid restrictions on the location of cleaners in specific urban areas. The consequence is the improvement of the environmental situation in the city and the development of the region in general

Air pollution , Aqi , Combined selective forecasting model , Edm , Esp , Selection problem

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Vice-Rector for Science and Innovation, Astana IT University, Mangilik El ave.EXPO Business Center,,Block C.1, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Information Technologies, Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Povitroflotskyi аve,31, Kyiv, 03037, Ukraine
Department of Information Systems and Technology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Volodymyrska str,60, Kyiv, 01033, Ukraine
Department of System Analysis and Optimization Theory, Uzhhorod National University, Narodna sq,3, Uzhhorod, 88000, Ukraine
IT-LYNX LLC, Raisa Bukina str,18, Kyiv, 03164, Ukraine
Department of Computer Engineering, Astana IT University, Mangilik El ave.EXPO Business Center,,Block C.1, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Theory of Probability and Mathematical Analysis, Uzhhorod National University, Narodna sq.,3, Uzhhorod, 88000, Ukraine
Department of Cybersecurity and Computer Engineering, Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Povitroflotskyi аve,31, Kyiv, 03037, Ukraine
Research and Innovation Center «Industry 4.0», Astana IT University, Mangilik El ave.EXPO Business Center,,Block C.1, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan

Vice-Rector for Science and Innovation
Department of Information Technologies
Department of Information Systems and Technology
Department of System Analysis and Optimization Theory
IT-LYNX LLC
Department of Computer Engineering
Department of Theory of Probability and Mathematical Analysis
Department of Cybersecurity and Computer Engineering
Research and Innovation Center «Industry 4.0»

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