Integrated Numerical Modeling of Dam Breach: Breach Formation, Reservoir Drawdown, and Impact on Downstream Small Dams

Balakay L. Kuznetsova O. Dedova T. Tusseyeva N. Sarybayev M.
February 2026 Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)

Applied Sciences (Switzerland)
2026 #16 Issue 4

This study presents a comprehensive numerical simulation of reservoir dam failure based on the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model MIKE 21. To reproduce the real accident process, a detailed digital elevation model derived from LiDAR survey data was constructed, incorporating valley microtopography, river channel geometry, and hydraulic structure elements. The modeling was performed in a stepwise manner and included the simulation of breach formation using a time-varying digital elevation model, the drawdown of the reservoir, and the propagation of the dam-break flood wave in the downstream reach, as well as an assessment of the hydrodynamic impact of the flow on small dams located further downstream. The simulations produced spatiotemporal distributions of flow depths and velocities, quantified the temporal evolution of reservoir water volume, and determined overflow parameters at the small dams. Based on the analysis of bed shear stress distribution, zones of increased hydrodynamic loading were identified and compared with observed damage areas. The results confirm the applicability of the adopted modeling framework for detailed reconstruction of dam-break events. The proposed approach can be applied both to the analysis of past dam failures and for predictive purposes when assessing the potential consequences of possible accidents at other reservoirs. The methodology enables preliminary evaluation of inundation zones, erosion intensity, and impacts on downstream hydraulic structures, making it a valuable tool for safety assessment and the planning of protective measures in areas with complex terrain conditions.

dam breach , high-precision geospatial data , hydraulic processes , hydrodynamic modeling , MIKE 21

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Institute of Ionosphere LLP, Almaty, 050020, Kazakhstan
EcoRisk LLP, Almaty, 050026, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Management, Al Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan

Institute of Ionosphere LLP
EcoRisk LLP
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Management

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026