A Cox Rate-and-State Model for Monitoring Seismic Hazard in the Groningen Gas Field
Baki Z. van Lieshout M.N.M.
January 2026Springer
Mathematical Geosciences
2026#58Issue 199 - 125 pp.
To monitor the seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field, this paper modifies the rate-and-state model that relates changes in pore pressure to induced seismic hazard by allowing for noise in pore pressure measurements and by explicitly taking into account gas production volumes. The first and second-moment structures of the resulting Cox process are analysed, an unbiased estimating equation approach for the unknown model parameters is proposed and the conditional distribution of the driving random measure is derived. A parallel Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm is used for sampling from the conditional distribution and to monitor the hazard.
Cox process , Gas production , Induced seismicity , Pore pressure , Rate-and-state model , Spatio-temporal point process
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
Credit Risk Management of Digital Products, Halyk Bank JSC, Al-Farabi 40, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica (CWI), P.O. Box 94079, Amsterdam, NL-1090 GB, Netherlands
Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics & Computer Science, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, Enschede, NL-7500 AE, Netherlands
Credit Risk Management of Digital Products
Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica (CWI)
Faculty of Electrical Engineering
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026