Asymmetric Relationship between Oil Prices, Agricultural Production, and Industrial Production in Kazakhstan: Application of the NARDL Method
Baisholanova K.S. Dauzova A.M. Kazan H. Myrzabekkyzy K. Tazhibayeva R.M. Sarsenova A.E. Utebayeva Z.A. Nurgabylov M.
25 June 2025Econjournals
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
2025#15Issue 4465 - 471 pp.
Two important factors contributing to oil revenues in Kazakhstan are the agricultural and industrial production sectors. This study examines the asymmetric effects of variability in these sectors on oil revenues. The analysis was conducted using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model. In this model, oil revenues are represented as a ratio of oil revenues to GDP, while industrial and agricultural productions are represented by the industrial production index and the agricultural production index, respectively. The asymmetric effect refers to the differing impacts that positive or negative shocks in industrial or agricultural production have on oil revenues. Using annual data from 1992 to 2023, the study found that industrial production had statistically significant effects on oil revenues in the short term; however, this effect did not persist in the long term. In contrast, agricultural production demonstrated significant effects on oil revenues in both the short and long term, with notable seasonal differences in the impacts of short-term positive and negative shocks. Additionally, the error correction model indicated that both production sectors had asymmetric effects that led to deviations from expected oil revenues. In conclusion, the findings of this research highlight the significant role that production sectors play in explaining fluctuations in oil revenues.
Agricultural Production , Industrial Production , Kazakhstan , NARDL , Oil Price , Wald Test
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Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Almaty Humanitarian-Economic University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
Faculty of Economics, Management and Law, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi, International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan
International University of Tourism and Hospitality, Turkestan, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Economics and Business, International Taraz University Named after Sherkhan Murtaza, Taraz, Kazakhstan
A. Baitursynov Kostanay Regional University, Kostanay, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Almaty Humanitarian-Economic University
Faculty of Economics
Faculty of Economics
International University of Tourism and Hospitality
Faculty of Economics and Business
A. Baitursynov Kostanay Regional University
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