MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND COMPUTER CALCULATION OF THE PREDICTION OF POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF EARTHQUAKES

ЖЕР СІЛКІНІСІНІҢ ЫҚТИМАЛ САЛДАРЛАРЫН БОЛЖАУДЫ МАТЕМАТИКАЛЫҚ МОДЕЛЬДЕУ ЖӘНЕ КОМПЬЮТЕРЛІК ЕСЕПТЕУ
МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И КОМПЬЮТЕРНЫЕ ВЫЧИСЛЕНИЯ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ВОЗМОЖНЫХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ
Alsheriyev Е. Dossaliyev K. Naukenova A. Yegenova A. Abdrasilov L.
November-December 2025 National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan

News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2025 #2025 Issue 6 22 - 31 pp.

This article discusses the actual problem of mathematical modeling and computer forecasting of the consequences of seismic activity. The aim of the study is to develop an integrated methodology and software for rapid assessment of potential damage from earthquakes of various magnitude. The methodological basis of the work is based on the combination of several mathematical approaches. The study used the macroseismic field equation (Shebalin equation) to calculate the intensity of the seismic impact based on the magnitude and hypocentric distance. The results of finite element modeling are used to assess the physical vulnerability of buildings and structures. Special attention is paid to modeling catastrophic events: to describe the probability of critical disturbances above 7.0, a generalized Pareto distribution was included in the computational algorithm, which makes it possible to estimate taking into account the maximum danger levels. The practical value of this research was to develop an interactive interface that would allow users to simulate earthquake scenarios by selecting the magnitude and region. The system automatically calculates and visualizes predicted sanitary and irretrievable population losses, the number of damaged buildings and the length of destroyed roads in 3D graphics format. The proposed approach allows emergency response services and planners to effectively assess risks, analyze the predicted consequences of earthquakes, and develop public safety measures.

earthquake , magnitude , mathematical modeling , seismic activity , web application

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М. Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent, Kazakhstan

М. Auezov South Kazakhstan University

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

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