The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy
Alpysbayeva D. Bazarkulova D. Sagyndykova G.
2025Routledge
Post-Soviet Affairs
2025#41Issue 4311 - 347 pp.
This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on employment in Kazakhstan due to an influx of migrants. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM), our study reveals a varying effect on Kazakhstan’s employment following the invasion. We find a notable effect on employment in treated cities with regional variation. We also find the heterogeneous impact of forced migration across different demographic characteristics and report that young males and males with vocational education are the most vulnerable group, which aligns with expectations based on the nature of the shock and the aggregate composition of migrant flows. Our findings highlight that ongoing uncertainty and evolving geopolitics can have lasting consequences on Kazakhstan’s labor market. This research contributes to the understanding of labor market effects in emerging economies amidst (semi-)forced migration. The historical, cultural, and economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, coupled with their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, present a distinctive context. Our research highlights the necessity of ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the long-term impacts.
employment dynamics , Forced migration , Kazakhstan , Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
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Department of Public Economics, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
Skatteforsk–Centre for Tax Research, NMBU, Ås, Norway
Department of Economics, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Public Economics
Skatteforsk–Centre for Tax Research
Department of Economics
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