Current Trends and Future Scenarios: Modeling Maximum River Discharge in the Zhaiyk–Caspian Basin (Kazakhstan) Under a Changing Climate
Alimkulov S. Makhmudova L. Davletgaliev S. Talipova E. Snow D. Birimbayeva L. Dyldaev M. Smagulov Z. Sailaubek A.
November 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Hydrology
2025#12Issue 11
In the context of intensifying climate change, it is particularly important to assess the transformation of spring floods as a key phase of the hydrological regime of rivers. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of maximum runoff in the Zhaiyk–Caspian basin for the modern period and projected changes for 2030, 2040, and 2050 based on CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Analysis of observations at 34 hydrological stations showed a reduction in spring runoff by up to 35%, a decrease in the duration of high water and a reduction in maximum water discharge on some rivers by up to 45%. It has been established that those rising temperatures, more frequent thaws, and reduced autumn moisture lead to lower maximum water discharge and a redistribution of the seasonal flow regime. Scenario projections revealed significant spatial heterogeneity: some rivers are expected to experience an increase in maximum discharge of up to 72%, while others will see a steady decline in maximum discharge of up to 35%. The results obtained indicate the need to transition to an adaptive water management system focused on the regional characteristics of river basins and the sensitivity of small- and medium-sized watercourses to climate change.
air temperature , atmospheric precipitation , climate change , CMIP6 , maximum discharge , river flow transformation , scenario forecasting , spring flood , Zhaiyk–Caspian basin (Kazakhstan)
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Institute of Geography and Water Security, Seifullin Av. 458/1, Almaty, 050004, Kazakhstan
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi Av. 71, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 3550 E. Campus Loop, AGH 300, Lincoln, 68583-0708, NE, United States
Bishkek State University Named After Academician Kusein Karasaev, Chyngyz Aitmatov Av. 27, Bishkek, 720044, Kyrgyzstan
Institute of Geography and Water Security
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources
Bishkek State University Named After Academician Kusein Karasaev
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