Climate evolution from the Miocene to the present in central and southeastern Kazakhstan: Evidence from Aktau Mountain and Kushuk localities

Akmagambet S. Zhamangara A. Myrzagaliyeva A. Muratov R. Adamzhanova Z. Samarkhanov T. Zadagali A. Kakabayev A.
October 2025 University of Guilan

Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences
2025 #23 Issue 4 893 - 902 pp.

Reconstructing past climate dynamics in Central Asia is essential for understanding the Cenozoic evolution of ecosystems and regional climate patterns. This study presents a comparative paleoclimate analysis of two coeval Early Miocene floras from Kazakhstan: Aktau Mountain (also known as Dzhungar Aktau, Ili Depression, Southeastern Kazakhstan) and Kushuk (Turgai Depression, Central Kazakhstan). Using the Coexistence Approach (CA), we reconstructed key climatic parameters including mean annual temperature (MAT), coldest and warmest month temperatures (CMT, and WMT), and mean annual precipitation (MAP). The results indicate that both regions experienced warm and humid conditions during the Miocene (MAT ~14 °C, and MAP ~900– 1000 mm), favorable for the development of forested ecosystems. In contrast, paleoclimate simulations from CHELSA TraCE21k reveal that during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) both localities were characterized by colder and drier conditions (MAT < 0 °C, and MAP 88–350 mm). Modern climate assessments show strong discrepancies between global climate models (CHELSA v2.1), which significantly overestimate temperature and precipitation, and regional meteorological data (Kazhydromet), documenting a strongly continental and arid climate (MAT 11.8 °C, MAP 218 mm in Aktau; and MAT 2.5 °C, MAP 275 mm in Kushuk). Our findings highlight a long-term climatic trajectory from humid Miocene conditions through arid Pleistocene environments to the modern sharply continental climate of Kazakhstan. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating paleobotanical evidence, global climate models, and observational meteorological datasets to achieve reliable reconstructions of the past and present climate dynamics in Central Asia.

climate dynamics , Coexistence Approach , Kazakhstan , Miocene , paleoclimate reconstruction

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High School of Natural Sciences of Astana International University, 8 Kabanbay Batyra Av, Astana, 000010, Kazakhstan
Astana Botanical Garden, 16 Orynbor Av, Astana, 010016, Kazakhstan
Department of Geography and Ecology, M. Kozybayev North Kazakhstan University, 114 University, Rushkin str, Petropavlovsk, 150000, Kazakhstan

High School of Natural Sciences of Astana International University
Astana Botanical Garden
Department of Geography and Ecology

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