Application of bayesian networks in the decision support system during the analysis of cyber threats

AKHMETOV B.S. LAKHNO V.A. YDYRYSHBAYEVA M.B. YAGALIYEVA B.E. BAIGANOVA A.V. AKHANOVA M.B. TASHIMOVA A.K.
2021 Little Lion Scientific

Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
2021 #99 Issue 4 884 - 893 pp.

The article based on the analysis of methods for constructing models of the attacker and cybernetic threats for information objects (OBI), the effectiveness of using the Bayesian network device in intelligent decision support systems for situations with poorly structured data on the types of threats to the OBI. Implemented a Bayesian network (BN) for the computational core of the DSS. The network is designed to predict the development of cyber threats to the OBI and its information and communication system (ICS). An example of the BN Data Modification in an information system is considered. The Bayesian network allows to operate on a set of random variables and determine the probability of a cybernetic threat to the ICS under given conditions. To improve the efficiency of attack prediction, the network parameters were trained with the EM algorithm (Expectation-maximization algorithm) based on the available statistical data. Alternative networks are also created based on network structure estimation with three different algorithms. The effectiveness of the developed models was checked using test samples that were not previously used in the BN training process. The results obtained indicate the feasibility of using EM and PC (Peter-Clark - PC algorithm) algorithms to obtain a high-quality result of recognizing cybernetic threats for the ICS of informatization objects.

Bayesian Networks , Cyber Threat , Decision Support System , Modeling And Forecasting

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Abay Kazakh National Pedagogical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Yessenov University, Aktay, Kazakhstan
Zhubanov Aktobe regional university, Kazakhstan

Abay Kazakh National Pedagogical University
National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Yessenov University
Zhubanov Aktobe regional university

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