Financial monitoring effectiveness in Kazakhstan’s bank investment operations: A mixed-methods evaluation

Abzhalelova S. Ruziyeva E. Kalkabayeva G. Tyan O. Kurmanalina A.
2025 LLC CPC Business Perspectives

Banks and Bank Systems
2025 #20 Issue 4 276 - 292 pp.

Investment activities of banks are a key driver in financial sector development, yet their effectiveness largely depends on the quality of financial monitoring, which can detect, diagnose, and correct anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) weaknesses. This article aims to assess the effectiveness of financial monitoring in the investment operations of Kazakhstani banks and to identify transaction-level risk indicators that can support data-driven AML/CFT supervision. The study employs a mixed methods design that combines analysis of national AML/CFT legislation and supervisory guidance with semi-structured expert interviews and case studies of three major institutions (Halyk Bank, Kaspi Bank, and ForteBank). In the quantitative component, a synthetic dataset of 1,000 investment-related transac-tions, calibrated to 2019–2024 statistics from the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Committee for Financial Monitoring, is analyzed using logistic, multilevel, and Bayesian logistic regression with cross-validation and bootstrapped confidence inter-vals. The models achieve high predictive performance (AUC up to 0.93, test accuracy up to 93.2%, sensitivity 82.0%, specificity 94.1%) and show that higher transaction amounts, cross-border origin, SWIFT channel use, and investment-linked operations increase the odds of being flagged as suspicious by factors of roughly 1.5-3.5. Qualitative evidence reveals uneven digitalization, fragmented data integration, and capacity gaps, especially in mid-sized banks, which limit the practical implementation of these risk-sensitive tools. The results justify targeted regulatory support for advanced analytics and provide a replicable framework for strengthening investment-related financial monitoring in Kazakhstan and comparable emerging markets.

banking sector , Bayesian logistic regression , digitalization , financial regulation , Kazakhstan , multilevel modeling , suspicious transactions

Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи

University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev, Kazakhstan
Accounting and Finance Department, Almaty Technological University, Kazakhstan
Department of Finance, Karaganda Buketov University, Kazakhstan

University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev
Accounting and Finance Department
Department of Finance

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026