Authoritarian succession, rules, and conflicts: Tokayev’s gambit and Kazakhstan’s bloody January of 2022 (Qandy Qantar)
Abishev G. Kurmanov B. Sabitov Z.
2024Routledge
Post-Soviet Affairs
2024#40Issue 6429 - 451 pp.
The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in surprising violence. This article unpacks the puzzle of the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev (1991–2019) to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2019–present) in autocratic Kazakhstan. Based on in-depth interviews with more than 15 informants and the analysis of media and secondary sources, we explore why and how the planned succession in Kazakhstan resulted in the bloodshed known as the 2022 Bloody January (Qandy Qantar). We demonstrate that two factors derailed the succession plan: the configuration of authoritarian rules and the presence of political ambitions of Tokayev. Our main argument is that the Nazarbayev succession plan led to elite disunity, escalating the political conflict into the violent 2022 Bloody January.
authoritarian regimes , authoritarian rules , Kazakhstan , post-soviet autocracies , Succession
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Faculty of Journalism and Political Science, L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Institute of Public Policy and Administration, Graduate School of Development, University of Central Asia, Bishkek, Kazakhstan
Research Department, Research Institute for Jochi Ulus Studies, Astana, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Journalism and Political Science
Institute of Public Policy and Administration
Research Department
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