Environmental Suitability of Kazakhstan to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Using Data on Eurasian Outbreaks, 2020–2024
Abenova A.Z. Mukhanbetkaliyev Y.Y. Kadyrov A.S. Sytnik I.I. Shevtsov A.B. Korennoy F.I. Martin I.I. Perez A.M. Abdrakhmanov S.K.
April 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Viruses
2025#17Issue 4
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease of domestic, synanthropic, and wild birds that has demonstrated a sharp rise globally since 2020. This study intends to examine environmental and demographic factors most significantly associated with HPAI (H5N1 and H5N8) outbreaks in Kazakhstan, 2020–2024, and to identify areas of potential underreporting of the disease. Two ecological niche models were developed, namely an “occurrence model” (considering climatic and environmental factors influencing the likelihood of HPAI occurrence) and a “reporting model” (that assesses the probability of disease reporting based on human and poultry population demography). Both models were trained using outbreak locations in countries neighboring Kazakhstan (Afghanistan, China, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Russia), and then tested using the HPAI outbreak locations in Kazakhstan. Results suggested a good fit for both models to Kazakhstani outbreaks (test AUC = 0.894 vs. training AUC = 0.915 for “occurrence model”, and test AUC = 0.869 vs. training AUC = 0.872 for “reporting model”). A cluster of high occurrence-to-reporting ratio was detected in the south-western region of Kazakhstan, close to the Caspian Sea, suggesting a need for enhancing surveillance efforts in this zone as well as in some other areas of Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan, Western Kazakhstan, Qyzylorda, and Eastern Kazakhstan. Results presented here will help inform the design and implementation of control strategies for HPAI in Kazakhstan with the ultimate goal of promoting disease prevention and control in the country.
epidemiology , highly pathogenic avian influenza , Kazakhstan , maxent , outbreaks , suitability , underreporting
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Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Husbandry Technology, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, 010011, Kazakhstan
National Center for Biotechnology, Astana, 010011, Kazakhstan
Federal Centre for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, 600901, Russian Federation
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Branch in Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation
Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, 28130, Spain
Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul Campus, St. Paul, 55108, MN, United States
Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Husbandry Technology
National Center for Biotechnology
Federal Centre for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH)
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology
Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA)
Center for Animal Health and Food Safety
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