Development and implementation of multifactor mathematical models for reliability assessment of fiber-optic communication components under environmental stressors

Abdykadyrov A. Suieubayev O. Kuttybayeva A. Kashaganova G. Boranbayeva A. Domrachev V. Nazarova A. Kystaubayev N. Kuttybayev A. Koblanov S.
2026 Politechnika Lubelska

Advances in Science and Technology Research Journal
2026 #20 Issue 3 111 - 128 pp.

This study presents the development and validation of multifactor mathematical models that quantify how combined environmental stressors affect the reliability of fiber-optic communication components, including transceivers and passive modules. The model integrates four key input parameters – temperature (20–50 °C), relative humidity (60–90%), Еlectromagnetic field (EM field) strength (1–5 V/m), and mechanical vibration (0.1–1.0 g) – to predict the main output quantities: optical power and reliability R(t). The regression and thermo-energetic formulations achieved a mean-squared-error of 0.024 W² and a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.91, while the reliability function estimated R(t) = 94% after 12 months of average environmental loading. The deviation between modeled and simulated “measured” values did not exceed 1.6% within the tested ranges, confirming the predictive adequacy of the approach. The models remain applicable for the environmental ranges listed above and can be integrated into real-time monitoring systems for adaptive reliability prediction of fiber-optic infrastructures.

environmental stressors , fiber-optic communication , multifactor analysis , reliability modeling , simulation-based validation , thermo-energetic regression

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Department of Electronics, Telecommunications and Space Technologies, Satbayev University, Satbayev Str. 22, Almaty, 050013, Kazakhstan
Institute of Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering named after Academician U. A. Dzholdasbekov, Kurmangazy Str. 29, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
Department of Telecommunication Engineering, Almaty University of Power Engineering & Telecommunications named after G. Daukeev, Baitursynuly Str. 126/1, Almaty, 050013, Kazakhstan
Department of Mining, Satbayev University, Satbayev Str. 22, Almaty, 050013, Kazakhstan
Department of computer technology and cybersecurity, International Information Technology University, Manasa Str. 34/1, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan

Department of Electronics
Institute of Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering named after Academician U. A. Dzholdasbekov
Department of Telecommunication Engineering
Department of Mining
Department of computer technology and cybersecurity

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