MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES BY ANOMALOUS VARIATIONS OF THE GROUNDWATER REGIME

Abdullaev A.U. Yessenzhigitova Y.Zh. Turabaeva Z.
2021 National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan

News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2021 #6 Issue 450 23 - 29 pp.

Medium-term forecast in the system of forecasting strong earthquakes takes a particularly important place, because it is considered to have the highest likelihood of implementation and to facilitate the adoption of specific preventive seismic protection measures. One of the main components of this direction, recognized in the world, is the hydrogeodynamic (HGD) forecast of strong earthquakes based on extreme time anomalies in the regime of groundwater and hydrometeorological factors in seismically active regions. Such work was carried out at the Institute of Seismology of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of the project with registration number 0121RK00767 under the program of targeted funding of science in Kazakhstan. Data from various sources on the following earthquakes were analyzed: 1885 Vernу (M=7.3), 1902 Shamakhan (M=7.3), 1911 Kemin (M=8.4), 1938 Kemino-Chu (M=6.8), 1948 Ashgabat (M=7.3), 1970 Sarykamysh (M=6.5), 1975 Khaichen (M=7.1), 1976 Tangshan (M=7.3), 1978 Zhalanash-Tyup (M=6.8), 1990 Baysorun (M=6.4.), 1992 Susamyr (M=7.4). Very valuable information was obtained from the analysis of historical data set forth on ancient seismic events in the historical records of China and Japan over the past 500 years. These sources note that before and after the earthquake, extreme changes occur in the level or in the flow rates, as well as in the temperature and physical properties of groundwater in wells, wells, springs and river flows. At the same time, very contrasting weather conditions and anomalous meteoric precipitation were noted at the same time. In general, as a result, 3 groups of changes in the regime of groundwater over time are noted: the level or discharge of groundwater, up to their disappearance or gushing: temperature and gas-chemical changes preceding and accompanying strong destructive earthquakes, which covered a fairly large territory and a time interval from several years to six months and fits into the framework of the concept of medium-term precursors of earthquakes. Based on the analysis of these data, below, criteria-signs of the preparation of strong earthquakes in hydrometeo-hydrogeodynamic fields are formulated.

fluid regime , gradients , hydrogeodynamic parameters , hydrometeo-hydrogeodynamic indicators , inversion , medium-term earthquake forecast , modular coefficients , trends

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Institute of seismology, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Institute of seismology

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