PROGNOSIS OF INJURIES AT METALLURGICAL PLANTS OF KAZZINC LLP BY MATHEMATICAL MODELING
Abdugaliyeva G.Yu. Daumova G.K. Makhiyev B.E. Akylkankyzy А.
2024National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2024#1Issue 4638 - 16 pp.
The article is devoted to topical issues of injury prognosis in metallurgical workshops of Kazzinc LLP, which is one of the largest metallurgical enterprises of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The average injury rate at metallurgical enterprises and workshops of this company is in the range of 18 to 22 accidents per year. Therefore, the prediction of injuries in order to prevent and reduce this phenomenon is an important component of the overall reduction in the level of injuries in this company. To solve this problem, the accounting and analysis of injury indicators were carried out: that made it possible to develop scientifically based criteria for occupational safety and build mathematical models of injuries. Such models make it possible to identify trends, make informed decisions to improve working conditions and technological processes. The methodology of injury prediction is based on Holts method of mathematical modeling, which gives a real opportunity to predict accidents for the next 2–3 years. Modeling is carried out by exponential smoothing of the time series taking into account the growth factor (growth factor), or otherwise the trend (trend factor). To predict injuries with sufficient reliability, the statistics of injuries at metallurgical enterprises of Kazzinc LLP for the period 2013–2020 were used. The Statistica 10 program was used for the Holt method calculation, in which statistical data for the study period were entered. Comparison of the results of injury forecasting at the studied enterprise for subsequent years with the actual data shows high reliability (90 %). This contributes to the timely adoption of the necessary organizational, psychophysiological, technical and technological measures to prevent accidents, which leads to a reduction in injuries at the enterprise.
accident , industrial injuries , industrial safety , injury prevention , labor protection , metallurgy , prognosis
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East Kazakhstan University named after S. Amanzholov, Higher School of IT and Natural Sciences, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan Technical University named after D. Serikbayev, School of Metallurgy and Mineral Processing, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan Technical University named after D.Serikbayev, School of Architecturе and Construction, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan University named after S. Amanzholov
East Kazakhstan Technical University named after D. Serikbayev
East Kazakhstan Technical University named after D.Serikbayev
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