Mapping the risks of the spread of peste des petits ruminants in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Abdrakhmanov S.K. Mukhanbetkaliyev Y.Y. Sultanov A.A. Yessembekova G.N. Borovikov S.N. Namet A. Abishov A.A. Perez A.M. Korennoy F.I.
July 2022John Wiley and Sons Inc
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
2022#69Issue 42296 - 2305 pp.
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral transboundary disease seen in small ruminants, that causes significant damage to agriculture. This disease has not been previously registered in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). This paper presents an assessment of the susceptibility of the RKs territory to the spread of the disease in the event of its importation from infected countries. The negative binomial regression model that was trained on the PPR outbreaks in China, was used to rank municipal districts in the RK in terms of PPR spread risk. The outbreak count per administrative district was used as a risk indicator, while a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors were considered as explanatory variables. Summary road length, altitude, the density of small ruminants, the maximum green vegetation fraction, cattle density, and the Engel coefficient were the most significant factors. The model demonstrated a good performance in training data (R2 = 0.69), and was transferred to the RK, suggesting a significantly lower susceptibility of this country to the spread of PPR. Hot spot analysis identified three clusters of districts at the highest risk, located in the western, eastern, and southern parts of Kazakhstan. As part of the study, a countrywide survey was conducted to collect data on the distribution of livestock populations, which resulted in the compilation of a complete geo-database of small ruminant holdings in the RK. The research results may be used to formulate a national strategy for preventing the importation and spread of PPR in Kazakhstan through targeted monitoring in high-risk areas.
ArcGIS , negative binomial regression , Peoples Republic of China , peste des petits ruminants , Republic of Kazakhstan , risk factors
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Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Nur-Sultan (Astana), Kazakhstan
Kazakh Scientific Research Veterinary Institute, Almaty, Kazakhstan
LTD NPC DiaVak-ABN, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States
Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russian Federation
Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University
Kazakh Scientific Research Veterinary Institute
LTD NPC DiaVak-ABN
Department of Veterinary Population Medicine
Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH)
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