A hybrid spatio-temporal model for probabilistic mapping of soil salinity in arid regions
Abdikerimova G. Khamitova D. Yussupova G. Akhmetova Z. Azhibekova Z. Yessenova M. Uzakkyzy N. Tynykulova A. Bayegizova A.
2026Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
IEEE Access
2026
Soil salinity is a key driver of land degradation in arid regions and remains a severe constraint to sustainable agriculture. Field-based observations are limited in space and time, making it challenging to track seasonal and internal changes. This study presents an innovative hybrid probabilistic framework for assessing soil salinity using multi-source satellite and climate data. A quasi-temporal dataset for 2020 to 2025 was created from Sentinel-2 surface reflectance, ERA5-Land hydroclimatic variables, terrain features, and distance to water. A physically interpretable feature set was developed using spectral indices, soil moisture gradients, aridity indicators, water balance metrics, and combined spectral and climatic interactions. Soil conditions were classified into three regimes (NORMA, SALINE, SAND) using a unified decision scheme based on NDVI, NDMI, and BSI. The hybrid model estimates the probability of transitions between soil regimes across years and regions. Its performance was tested using stratified and group cross-validation, temporal hold-out (2020 to 2023 for training and 2024 to 2025 for testing), and strict external validation based on independent AOI sites. The model achieved stable results with an Accuracy of about 0.97, Macro-F1 of about 0.97, and ROC AUC above 0.97. The proposed approach provides an AI-driven, interpretable, and scalable solution for monitoring soil salinity and supporting land and water management.
arid land degradation , feature engineering , hybrid spatio-temporal model , probabilistic risk modelling , remote sensing , Soil salinity mapping , temporal generalization
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L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Department of Information Systems, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
ALT University, DepartmentsRadio Engineering and Telecommunications, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Astana IT University, School of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
S. Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Department of Information and communication technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan
L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Faculty of Information Technology, Department of Computer and Software Engineering, Astana, Kazakhstan
Astana International University, Higher School of Information Technology and Engineering, Astana, Kazakhstan
L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Faculty of Information Technology, Department of Information Security, Astana, Kazakhstan
L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University
ALT University
Astana IT University
S. Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University
L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University
Astana International University
L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026